Friday, May 8, 2009

US Dollar Positioning Mixed Against Forex Majors

US Dollar positioning is mixed against major counterparts after a humbling week that saw an index of the currency’s average value break below support at a key trend line. That said, the trend bias against the Euro and the British Pound looks to continue to favor the greenback, with the latter offering a clear selling opportunity.

EUR/USD

Strategy: Pending Short

Weekly Profit / Loss: +2108 pips

We first sold EURUSD at 1.5510. Earlier this week, we exited the position as US Dollar Index broke below trend line support, booking 2108 pips in profit. We now take a step back to reassess the overall trend: looking at weekly bars, we see that EURUSD is setting up a Descending Triangle, a bearish continuation pattern, broadly favoring a breakout below support marked by the double bottom near 1.2530. While near-term positioning does not yield a clear entry signal, we continue to see EURUSD losses ahead and will monitor prices for selling opportunities.

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